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What is happening now in South Africa. Strategist: The crisis in South Africa will affect not only Africa but the whole world

“I have heard and read such statements more than once that white people in Africa - colonialists and invaders, oppressed poor blacks, closed their access to the benefits of civilization, to education, did not let them go to good work. And so, I visited a country that can act as an example, as the quintessence of all these problems - South Africa.

It is with this country that apartheid and the name of Nelson Mandela are associated. Apartheid is long gone, the black majority has been in power for many years. Got better?

What do you pay attention to when you get to South Africa? The streets are dirty.

Papers, corks, cores and banana skins. And chicken bones. This is what surprised me the most. They clean up in the center, but the farther from the center, the dirtier and more dilapidated and dilapidated buildings. People. A lot of beggars. They dig through urns, beg in the streets.

Townships. These are the places where the blacks live. There is crime. And white people shouldn't go there. Even by car. Even just to look.

These buildings remind me of the "gypsy squatters" that appear from time to time on the outskirts of our cities. Shed houses made of shit and plywood sticks, some kind of shields, slate and other improvised materials. Antennas stick out of them, ropes are stretched between them, where clothes are dried. Cars are parked next to some of them.

There are no sewers in the townships. So you understand...

Near the townships on the side of the road, people are often found sitting on stones or on the grass. They don't do anything. They just sit and watch the cars go by.

Whites live in "good" areas, try to settle next to each other. Children are taken to private schools. You are aware of security measures. As a rule, it is whites who work in responsible positions in various companies. Not because they are white, but because they are professionals. It is professionals and well-educated people that are lacking in South Africa.

Large companies are forced to invite specialists from abroad. The entire infrastructure and civilization in this country was built by white people. It was they who brought culture, industry and progressive agriculture here. All this has fallen into disrepair in recent years. Farmers cannot live in remote areas without putting themselves and their families in mortal danger. Since 1994, about 4,000 white farmers have been killed by blacks in South Africa.

Specialists leave the country, again, because of security problems and severe discrimination against the white population. The main heyday of South Africa falls on the 1950s and 1960s, when the country's economy grew thanks to a boom in the mining industry. The country developed medicine, had its own cosmodrome, and the military-industrial complex was well developed. In South Africa, they shot good movies and developed sports.

In addition, they implemented assistance and support programs local population built schools and hospitals.

The apartheid regime was brutal.

Its introduction is the main mistake of that time.

By the early 90s, international sanctions weakened the country and led to the fall of the apartheid regime and the coming to power of the black majority. And then "there was a rollback." Discrimination against the white population began, and often simply destruction. Many whites were forced to save their lives and leave the country. And who will replace professionals, who will replace doctors and teachers? The standard of living in the country has dropped dramatically. Moreover, the black population lost even more than the white population.

The South African government discriminates against the white population in the following sequence: when hiring for any position in the public sector, first a black man will have an advantage, then a black woman (both as former racially oppressed), then a white woman (as a former sexually oppressed), and only then consider the candidacy of a white man.

Now they are trying to somehow normalize the situation, but it does not work well. The standard of living continues to fall. 40% of the unemployed in the country. Not because there is nowhere to work, but because they cannot work. Low-skilled workers are not required, and they do not want to learn.

And they don't want to work. Many whites complain that they cannot find a gardener or a maid. Those who come work poorly and always steal. Human life among the black population is valued very little. Even the lives of their fellow tribesmen, not to mention the lives of whites. Unjustified cruelty during attacks and the commonness of such a crime as rape are noted.

Blacks are like cruel children. I saw a toy-car from a more successful fellow tribesman or from a white one - it must be taken away. Does not give - it is necessary to kill and take away. They don't value other people's lives and they don't value their own. Therefore, they are dying like flies from AIDS and other diseases. They do not follow the rules of hygiene, hence the many intestinal infections.

I must say that the stratification of society with the abolition of the power of the white minority even increased. Only the place of the white exploiters was taken by the black ones. There was a redistribution of the country's wealth, not nationalization. All major enterprises and industries belong to blacks, but they still cannot effectively manage enterprises.

According to the international organization Genocide Watch (www.genocidewatch.org), headed by Dr. Gregory Stanton, the level of genocide in South Africa on the corresponding scale is at 6 and 8. The sixth level is identified as the preparatory stage of genocide, and the seventh - the stage of extermination. The eighth stage requires no comment.

By the way, Mr. Stanton was once a member of the anti-apartheid movement. And one can speak separately about corruption in South Africa. She is everywhere and everywhere.

In the center of Cape Town, for example, there is half of the overpass - when they built, everyone was so corrupt that already at the design stage something was designed wrong, and then the remaining money was stolen. And then, probably, it turned out that the very idea of ​​building an overpass was born in someone's brains stricken with corruption fever, because in fact it is not needed here. So half of the unfinished overpass is worth it. And no one is going to finish anything.

And this is not an isolated example. Once upon a time, white people brought civilization here. Once, in terms of development, South Africa was among the most advanced countries in the world. And where is the country now? The dream of the black population has come true. Now their tribesmen have power. And the country has slipped below the plinth. The mining industry is in agony, the military-industrial complex is breathing its last, they don’t even remember about space.

Crime and obscurantism thrive in the country, human life is worthless. And this is the result of liberation from the white colonialists.

Yes, black racism is no better than white racism. But stupidity, greed and cruelty are even worse.

And let them call me a racist, I will say that the whites created this country, South Africa, and the blacks pissed it off ... "

From the editor

Blogger gal_an wrote a post on LiveJournal about her impressions of a trip to the Republic of South Africa, a country that is fabulously rich and just as fabulously poor. Many, if not all, of the blogger's conclusions about the reasons for the monstrous degradation of this country since the fall of the apartheid regime (when the white minority kept local residents on reservations) seem fair.

However, one should keep in mind this: no one invited a white man to Africa, no one forced him to enslave the population there and deprive him of elementary human rights for several centuries, trading them right and left like cattle.

Yes, black racism, which is now in vogue in almost all African countries, is no less vile than white racism. Only he is much, ten times younger than the white, and Africa will need a lot of time to get rid of him.

In the same Republic of South Africa during apartheid back in the 80s of the last century, the standard of living of the black population (living in the ghetto) was the highest by European standards among the entire black population of Africa. And the standard of living of white people - respectively - is the highest in the world in general (the author of these lines saw it with his own eyes). South Africa in those years was at the forefront in terms of the level of medicine - it was there that the world's first heart transplant was performed. There were excellent roads, richest farms, developed industry. There sought, as today in Europe, residents of neighboring countries to earn money.

And now all this is collapsing with the coming to power of the black majority. But after all, it is collapsing precisely because instead of teaching the owners of this land their achievements, the guests (whites) made cheap labor out of them.

I spoke yesterday with an insider from South Africa. Things are much worse there than you and I thought: the South African "bomb" has every chance to explode with such force that it will hardly seem to anyone on the planet.

White farmers, as one might guess, were not such fools as to expect good from the black Marxists who came to power, who long ago promised to hang these farmers on the surrounding palm trees. The farmers used the method well known to our big businessmen: the “poison pill”. They have collected so many loans from banks that their land is now worth almost nothing, it is all mortgaged and re-mortgaged in the bank. Part of the loans is invested in tractors and seeds, the other part is stored abroad in safe currency, in case the farmer has to urgently leave the country.

The black guys who came to power in South Africa, of course, will not stop because of such trifles as debt burdens. Having taken the land from the whites, they will not even think of repaying the loans taken on its security - this would make the expropriation completely pointless. Consequently, South African banks will immediately become bankrupt: firstly, they will lose most of the collateral, and secondly, the cash flow that the farmers paying on loans created will dry up.

Further, the South African authorities will have two ways. The first way is to leave the banks to their own fate, that is, to destroy the country's banking system in one fell swoop. The second way is to print money and buy out all the debts of the banks, thus setting the country in the footsteps of Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Any of the scenarios will lead to the collapse of the country's economy, and given that both banks and businesses in South Africa actively took loans abroad, the collapse of the South African economy in some scenarios could bring down a number of the world's largest international banks, which will put the global financial system on the verge of disasters.

As if this is not enough, the South African authorities also intend to lay their hands on mining by introducing a tax of 30% of the gross revenue of companies. This is an even more serious problem for the economy, since South Africa is still a mining country, not a breadbasket country. If South Africa still had a chance to survive the loss of agriculture, then I consider the chances of surviving the loss of the extractive industry as close to zero. Just in case: the withdrawal of 30% of the turnover will quickly kill most of the mines with a guarantee, and foreign investors and specialists will start leaving the few remaining projects that in 2018 still have sufficient profitability to give back 30%.

Unfortunately, there is no longer much hope that the South African authorities will come to their senses. The dispossession of whites is a political issue, the population will not understand if whites remain owners of their land. Things are even worse with the mine tax: it has already been divided among local politicians in advance, and it will be extremely unpleasant for them to lose the bear skin, which they have already mentally received and spent.

And finally - to avoid the traditional question from comments in the spirit of "why do you call them Marxists." Here are some vivid quotes from Julius Malem, the main driver of this wave of dispossession:

And here is an article about his party in Wikipedia:

Pay attention to the line "ideology" in the column on the right. I will quote: "communism", "Marxism-Leninism", "anti-capitalism", "anti-imperialism", "pan-Africanism", "anti-Europeanism".

No way
Don't go to Africa
Walk in Africa!
Sharks in Africa
Gorillas in Africa
In Africa, large
Angry crocodiles
They will bite you
Beat and offend -
Don't go kids
Walk in Africa.

Rogue in Africa
Villain in Africa
Terrible in Africa
Bar-ma-lei!

He runs around Africa
And eats children
Ugly, bad, greedy Barmaley!

History is such an interesting subject that few people know, but everyone who is somehow connected with finance, economics, politics, the social sphere, management and a number of other specialties should know by heart. For an investor who studies history, there are huge opportunities when some politician who does not know history decides to create without looking back at it.

What is happening now in South Africa seems stupid and unbelievable, but judging by the emigration of the white population from there over the past 20-30 years, the smartest South Africans understood where everything was going. And there is, among other things, the expropriation of land from white farmers. The history of neighboring Zimbabwe did not teach the black rulers of the southern country anything (there were all sorts of minor troubles, such as hyperinflation, the fall of the banking system, the impoverishment of the population, and simply rampant robbery and banditry). The fall of the rand in these conditions is more than natural. You can also selectively short some South African papers.

However, I would like to write about something else, about the new mining charter code and what it means for us.

New mining code in South Africa

  1. Ownership - a minimum of 30% must be transferred to the black population, including some of this must be given to workers, local communities (minimum 8%) and entrepreneurs (minimum 14%)
  2. Turnover Payments - The owner of the mining rights must pay 1% of the annual proceeds to the Negro owners of 30% of the shares before any payments to other shareholders become possible. The exception is if we fail the financial solvency test.
  3. Procurement - at least 70% of goods for mining and 80% of services must be from BBE (Black empowered entities - Authorized black companies); also 100% of the analysis of mineral samples must be done by South African companies - even if these companies are incompetent or their services are expensive.
  4. Employees:
    1. Board of Directors - at least 50% black, 25% of them black women
    2. Top management is the same
    3. Top management - 60% blacks, 30% of them black women
    4. Middle management - 75% blacks, 38% of them black women
    5. Junior management - 88% blacks, 44% of them black women
  5. Staff Development – ​​Owners must invest certain hard amounts in staff development.

So what's wrong with that?

And now imagine yourself in the place of the main mining company. Will he want to invest when there are so many complex and difficult rules to follow? And why would he give 30% to someone who hasn't invested a dime anyway? And where is the guarantee that tomorrow they will not ask for more? After all, the code has been repeatedly changed and each time for the worse. And where to get enough qualified personnel and how much will they have to pay?

Isn't it easier to develop a business in Canada, Australia, Latin America, CIS countries or even in other parts of Africa?

This code will cause South Africa to continue to lose its former glory as a mineral producer. The industry will slowly and painfully die, and those whom this code is supposed to protect will suffer, as it always happens in history, the most. This, for example, has already happened with gold (black line - South Africa):

What will be affected and what to do?

The mining industry in South Africa is:

  • 68% of world platinum production
  • 35% palladium
  • 6% gold

As well as chromium, vanadium, manganese, zirconium, antimonium, nickel, iron ore, etc.

What should an investor do?

My answer is that if you are not ready to watch juniors mining, say, vanadium (a common case, for example, for uranium miners, if not strange), then you can take a closer look at MMC Norilsk Nickel. The company has an excellent and promising mix of metals, prices for which, apparently, will be significantly higher than today.

I will finish with a quote from the song of South African President Jacob Zuma at the 100th Congress of the ANR - the South African ruling party - "Kill the Boer, Kill the Boer." Search on youtube. Are there any other questions about the prospects of this distant country?

The situation in South Africa and how to make money on it by Vladislav

The Republic of South Africa was swept by a series of strikes. Following the builders and workers in the automotive industry, gold miners stopped their work. They took to the streets demanding higher wages. But gold mining companies are not yet willing to make concessions to them. Conflicts continue, while the South African economy is suffering enormous losses.

Gold miners decide to go on strike

Last week, strikes began in South Africa in the gold mining industry, which is the backbone of Africa's economy. More than 80,000 miners from the companies Village Main Reef, Shibani Gold, Harmony Gold, Rand Uranium, Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti refused to descend into the face. All workers belong to the NUM (National Union of Mine Workers), which failed to negotiate with employers to increase wages. Company management agreed to a 6.5 percent pay increase, but the unions demanded a double increase in wages, to $800 a month. "We are going to strike until the companies review their proposals," said Lesiba Seshoka, spokesman for the National Union of Miners.

NUM represents about 64 percent of South Africa's 120,000 gold workers. The unions demanded a 60 percent increase in wages for miners. Some of the more radical representatives demanded a 150 percent raise.

The party of gold mining companies - Sibanye Gold, Harmony Gold, Gold Fields, Evander Gold, AngloGold Ashanti and others - was represented at the negotiations by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Mining Industry of South Africa. The chamber's leadership proposed a salary increase of only 6.5 percent, based on an annual inflation rate of 6.3 percent. The workers were not satisfied with this option, they insisted on at least a 10 percent increase. As a result, the miners' union refused to continue further negotiations and threatened to hold a nationwide strike. Companies were warned in advance in writing about the fact of the strike.

As of September 3rd, manufacturing employment for the top seven companies: Village Main Reef, Gold Fields, Rand Uranium, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold, Sibanye Gold and Evander was approximately 110,000 people, who produced approximately 500 kilograms of gold daily. According to the South African Chamber of Mines, which represents the largest gold mining companies, on Wednesday morning, out of 23 gold mines, the management of 16 of them reported a complete cessation of work or the appearance of less than half of the employees.

For example, Harmony Gold mines with 30,000 workers had less than 20 percent of the workforce on shifts. At Gold Fields' only mine, attendance also dropped to 20 percent, while AngloGold Ashanti's mine was completely shut down.

There is no unity among the strikers

The union says that gold mining is a "white man's economy" where impoverished blacks are exploited to the fullest extent. However, among the miners there is no unity of demands. For example, Lesiba Seshoka, a spokeswoman for the union, is convinced that the 60 percent surcharge should continue to be demanded: "If the management of gold mining companies sits in air-conditioned offices, while receiving millions a year, then why can't ordinary miners working in hellish conditions make $800 a month?

In turn, the Association of Miners and Builders of the country insists on a 150 percent increase. Meanwhile, the general secretary of the trade union, France Baleni, said that he would recall the strikers with an increase in wages of at least 10 percent. Otherwise, the strike could last until Christmas itself. It is not yet known exactly what specific position the trade union and the miners themselves adhere to. And the fact that there is no common position, according to experts, can play a trick on them. As a result, they will receive some minuscule and again begin to fulfill their duties.

Season of strikes and negotiations

It should be noted that this is not the first such action in South Africa. Gold miners were always on strike and always demanded higher wages. The whole thing ended with some minor concessions from the management of the companies. But now many sectors of the South African economy are mired in a string of strikes.

In the Republic of South Africa, the season of wage indexation negotiations for employees has begun. However, unions and large corporations cannot reach a compromise, so strikes begin. More than 90,000 construction workers recently went on strike, also demanding a 13 percent increase in wages. In addition, some 30,000 workers in seven of the largest auto industries have quit their jobs and are seeking a 14 percent increase. Production has been stopped at the South African branches of General Motors, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Nissan, and Toyota. Airport workers have also joined the automotive industry, causing delays in the operation of the main international airport Johannesburg.

A strike by auto workers is estimated to cost the country millions of dollars every day, dealing a severe blow to an already tormented South African economy, as the business generates about 6 percent of the state's total annual income. Despite the mass shooting of strikers at the Marikana platinum mine in August last year (when the police shot dead 34 demonstrators), platinum mine workers also supported their colleagues and went on strike.

As you can see, South Africa is in a very strong fever, the economy is suffering multi-million dollar losses. The situation became even more aggravated after the value of the rand (South African currency) against the dollar fell sharply in 2013. This led to even greater impoverishment of ordinary South Africans. They did not find any other way out, except for the demand for higher salaries.

The economic and political situation in South Africa is deteriorating sharply

According to the calculations of the National Chamber of Mines, the possible losses of the country's economy from strikes in the gold mining sector alone can amount to approximately $35 million daily.

Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, urged the parties to find a compromise, as both miners and mine owners suffer as a result of the strikes. Susan Shabangu, the country's mining minister, said the government was ready to assist in negotiations.

It should be noted that gold mining companies in South Africa are now experiencing better times. Firstly, world prices for gold have fallen sharply, and secondly, production costs have increased, because as deposits are developed, deeper mines have to be dug to extract gold. Thirdly, constant strikes of workers and an increase in their wages can lead to the fact that the business of gold miners becomes unprofitable. According to Gold Fields Ltd., about half of the platinum and gold mines in the country are unprofitable. Some mining companies have been forced to go into liquidation and are downsizing. For example, Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the largest platinum producer, announced the layoff of more than 3,000 employees.


At the end of the year, political scientists and economists like to give their forecasts for the next year and look even five to ten years ahead. Well, I also have a prediction. I represent.

The end of the 20th century gave the world two presidents with a "new mindset". They are Frederick de Klerk, President of South Africa and Mikhail Gorbachev, President of the USSR.After their presidency, both countries experienced collapse. At the same time, both presidents received Nobel Peace Prizes. After this short introduction, I immediately turn to the situation in South Africa. And you will see a striking similarity in everything.

But first, let me remind you that South Africa is a country rich in mineral resources.South Africa had the most developed economy on the African continent. Thus, the potential of the South African economy at the time the African majority came to power was so great that it was enough for many years of consumption. This is evidenced by the fact that South Africa was able to independently create and test nuclear weapons. Let me also remind you that by the end of the 20th century, all the world's media wrote about the "economic miracle of South Africa."
But everything that had been accumulated before de Klerk was mediocrely eaten away and profaned. And the economic situation in South Africa has been deteriorating in recent years.

Today, the world media write about the genocide of the white population in South Africa, rampant violence and terror in South Africa, an increase in the number of AIDS carriers in South Africa, who have claimed the lives of over one hundred and eighty thousand people.

On average, 50 murders are committed every day in South Africa! That's 18,000 murders a year. There are 18,000 more attempted murders each year in South Africa.

One newspaper recently described Cape Town as "a city of gangsters, drugs, rape and theft, with someone killed every 25 minutes." Last year there were 18,438 home burglaries in South Africa.

Johan Burger from the South African Institute for Security Studies talks about the situation in South Africa. According to his story, in Kwa Mashu and similar suburbs, there is a very high level of unemployment and poverty: “In South Africa, there is not just a gulf between the rich and the poor. It is a very noticeable and tangible gulf. city ​​authorities. They are simply not dealt with, which only increases the aggressive mood of their inhabitants. "

The current rise in prices for essential goods, as well as for food and fuel, the increase in electricity tariffs with 40% unemployment - all this, as always and everywhere in such situations, has led to the search for the guilty. Natives from neighboring countries were the best fit for this role, whose share, with the total population of South Africa, amounting to about fifty million people, reached a very noticeable value - more than five million. It is they who are accused of taking the jobs of the indigenous population.

It's funny that the World Cup has ALREADY been held in South Africa, and Russia is yet to come.

Commenting on the application of the Russian Federation for the championship, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said: South Africa was in the same situation as Russia.

“The organizational experience of South Africa gives Russia the right to hope to get the 2018 World Cup. After all, when South Africa applied to host the World Cup, the country was in about the same situation as Russia is now.”

It seems that by 2018, when we will host this same World Cup, we will definitely be in the same situation as South Africa is today.

And now a fragment from Frederick de Klerk's interview gzt.ru/ As the reader will see, the ex-president is sure that everything is fine in the country: democracy, a market economy and a clear economic course. He does not admit his mistakes. Why, when everything is great?

What's going on in South Africa right now?

I look very positively at the situation in the republic. True, many white South Africans are leaving. It is also true that many come back. Moreover, many young people are leaving South Africa because of globalization, not because they have no faith in the country's future. The youth of Australia and New Zealand are doing the same. Yes, the crime rate in South Africa is huge, but tourists are guaranteed safety. Real estate prices are rising at an incredible rate. And no one I know sells real estate at a loss. The tourism business is growing. Recently, Cape Town has been recognized as an international tourism center with the highest level of service.

Describe the policy pursued by the current President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki.

I think that President Mbeki was able to develop a coherent economic course. I think he should have condemned President Mugabe's anti-democratic and racist behavior more harshly, although I understand the difficulties involved. He wants to keep his influence on Mugabe and understands the dangers of sanctions. On the other hand, the whole world and South Africa are expecting tough steps from him to protect democratic norms and standards, which are at the core of his own proposals for NEPAD (New Economic Plan for the Development of Africa). I have a hard time understanding his AIDS policy, which I think has done tangible damage to his own image and that of the country. Still, I have no doubt that President Mbeki is doing everything to ensure that South Africa prospers and becomes an example for the rest of the continent.

REFERENCE

Frederik Willem de Klerk was born on March 18, 1936 in Johannesburg. His father, Jan de Klerk, was the Prime Minister of South Africa.

In 1958, Frederik de Klerk graduated in law from Potchefstroom University. In 1972 he was elected as a member of parliament from the National Party.

At various times he was a member of the Cabinet of Ministers of South Africa. In September 1989, he was elected president of the country and literally from the first day of his reign began to make efforts to eliminate the apartheid system. In 1990, on the orders of de Klerk, all political prisoners were released, including Nelson Mandela.

In 1993, Frederick de Klerk and Nelson Mandela were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.